The Firstadopter Column

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At the beginning of each year I find it helpful to crystalize my thoughts and leanings with a top 10 predictions list. For reference this was my report card on my 2014 predictions.  

My top 10 predictions for 2015 are:

1. Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) will reach grand new heights later in 2015. After trying the alpha, I’m not confident in the new intellectual property Evolve. So the year may start off poorly, but Rockstar will announce the sequel to Red Dead Redemption at some point during the year and the anticipation for this blockbuster will be all that matters.

2. YouTube’s total domination of internet video is still being vastly under-estimated. Traditional cable and TV companies will suffer greatly as the demographic shift of young people watching YouTube instead of TV will continue to be a mega-trend.

3. Netflix subscriber growth will decelerate materially as the U.S. market has become saturated.

4. PC sales growth will slow and go back to its tepid ways as the enterprise upgrade cycle from the Windows XP security update termination of April 2014 dissipates.

5. Best Buy (BBY) revenue and profits will be down worse than people expect due to the lack of product cycles and chasing sales at no margin.

6. There will be a lot of hand-wringing about video-game software sales in the first few months after the holiday 2014 numbers will come in very weak due to the 5 major title delays. However 2014’s loss will be 2015’s gain, it will wind up being a strong double-digit growth year due to the stacked title slate later in the year.

7. Outerwall’s (OUTR) Redbox will have a rough year as the secular shift to internet video continues and becomes more accessible with built-in Android TV functionality in many new televisions.

8. Sodastream (SODA) business trends will continue to get worse as the long awaited partnership deal with Pepsi never materializes.

9. Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed sequel will suffer another big down year as the Victorian London setting doesn’t add enough variety to save the franchise. Rainbow Six Siege will be a modest success, but not big enough to matter. The Division will be a critical flop in the same vein as Destiny.

10. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) investors will lose confidence from the Call of Duty franchise tracking down almost 50% from peak unit sales, poor Destiny DLC sell-through, and Skylanders losing large market-share to Nintendo Amiibo and Disney Infinity.

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